A few years ago, I put up several posts describing Metaculus, the online prediction site that I co-founded with Anthony Aguirre and several other partners. In the interim, the site has grown substantially. It’s now logged roughly half a million predictions from a community of more than 10,000 users on a panoply of nearly 7,000 questions.
As the site has grown we’ve added staff, including a full-time CEO and a CTO, and a roster of analysts and question writers. We’re running real money competitions, including a $50K forecasting tournament on topics related to the development of artificial intelligence.
Many oklo.org readers may find interest in the Fermi-Drake question series, where we’re accumulating predictions on the terms of the famous equation for N.
Many readers will have their own opinions. Make your prediction count!
Beyond N, there are many active questions that touch on astrophysical topics.
The full list of astrophysics and cosmology questions is here.
including the ultimate question:
currently registering a 71% probability of resolving positively…