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MCT predictions revisited

28 Sep 2016, 16:46 UTC
MCT predictions revisited
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I made a messy post with predictions for the MCT (SpaceX Mars Colonial Transporter, now known as the Interplanetary Transport Ship/System). There is a follow-on series of posts, but this one has the relevant numbers. In terms of architecture I did very poorly. The actual ITS is rigid-hulled, passengers travel in microgravity, life support is ISS-style, and both Mars and Earth arrival is direct aerocapture and propulsive landing. There are a lot of windows. There are no propellant depots anywhere. Oh well... I like parts of my approach better but certainly Musk's approach is less risky up front and less expensive to develop. In terms of vehicle performance, I posted numbers for a 12m version and a 15m version. The vehicle will be 12m so I'll use those numbers. I'll compare to the reusable ship profile from Musk's talk.In short, I didn't do very well. Details after the jump.'Accuracy' numbers should be close to 100%. Over means I guessed high, under means I guessed low. Predicted Actual Accuracy Stage 1: length, m 123.77 77.50 160% dry mass, t 291.20 275.00 106% propellant, t 10,886.80 6,700.00 162% thrust, kN 186,500.00 128,000.00 146% Isp, s 300.67 361.00 83% dV, m/s 3,821.00 4,040.00 ...

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