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Our Predictions about Pluto: Getting it Right/Getting it Wrong

22 Oct 2015, 18:03 UTC
Our Predictions about Pluto: Getting it Right/Getting it Wrong
(200 words excerpt, click title or image to see full post)

Family portrait of Pluto’s four small moons
Back in June, my research colleage Doug Hamilton and I put out a paper in Nature magazine about the four small moons of Pluto. The timing was not accidental. Although the paper was the culmination of years of work with the Hubble Telescope, we knew that a lot of our predictions would be tested barely a month later, when the New Horizons spacecraft passed Pluto. Making predictions that might be proven wrong is part of the fun, and also part of the danger, of scientific research.
As we all know, the flyby was a great success and we are now waiting, patiently, for the slow trickle of images and other data to come back from the spacecraft. Today, NASA has released the first “family portrait” of Pluto’s four small moons. As someone who has spent years studying these objects as nothing but faint dots, I find it is enormously gratifying to see them as resolved bodies, with shapes, colors and surface features.
So what did we get right? Well, based on years of studying how the brightness of each body varies, we were able to determine the rough shapes of the two larger ...

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